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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights