Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Shabab travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Shabab haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.00 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al Shabab and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 62% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 44% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.47 xG and Al Shabab 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.973 / defence 0.971 | Al Shabab attack 0.917 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Fateh games / 34 Al Shabab games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 60% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fateh 1.47 / Al Shabab 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.973 / def 0.971 | Al Shabab attack 0.917 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 42% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 4W | Draws 4 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.97) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.72
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Al Shabab xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.24 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 9W 10D 15L from 34 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 15L across 34 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. Al Shabab haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.09 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 2W 7D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.29 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.47 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 65%, Al Shabab 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Fateh) and 29% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Fateh's games and 47% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 29% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.