🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Nassr travel to to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Faisaly FC, 1 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Al-Nassr winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.21 xG and Al-Nassr 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Nassr attack 1.292 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 0 Al-Faisaly FC games / 34 Al-Nassr games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Nassr 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights