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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC meet at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al Shabab (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Shabab haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 4W 2D 4L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Shabab winning.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.96 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.072 / defence 1.256 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al Shabab games / 0 Al-Faisaly FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Faisaly FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Faisaly FC 3.45. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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