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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 0-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.57 xG and Al-Nassr 2.29 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Al-Nassr attack 1.37 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 53%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 57%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights