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Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Najma 2-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al Najma 0.89 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Najma landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.38, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 23% | Al Najma 15%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 47%, Al Najma 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Najma's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights