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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights