Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 4L from 7 games (0.43 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC at this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 1.07 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.43) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.82 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.641 / defence 1.180 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.113 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Faisaly FC games / 41 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 14% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 7.14 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ettifaq 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 14% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.82 / Al-Ettifaq 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.641 / def 1.180 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.113 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 March 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 14% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 57% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.11x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
14%
7.17
30%
3.39
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.76
Al-Ettifaq xG
7.17
14%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
2%
41.54
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.76 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 3D 4L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Al-Ettifaq travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 67%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Faisaly FC and 33% for Al-Ettifaq.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 67%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.