Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Faisaly FC face Al-Ettifaq.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq travel to face Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Faisaly FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 Sep 2026, ended Al-Faisaly FC 0–0 Al-Ettifaq — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 67% versus Al-Ettifaq 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al-Ettifaq 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.89 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.787 / defence 1.217 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.061 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.478. Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.746, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Faisaly FC's projected output down. Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Faisaly FC's last 12 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 46.

Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 15% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 6.73 | Draw 3.88 | Al-Ettifaq 1.68. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Faisaly FC's last 6 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Faisaly FC 67% (last 6 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).

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