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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 2.29 xG and Al Riyadh 0.99 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Riyadh outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Al Riyadh attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 66% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 15%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights