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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Riyadh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Riyadh 1-0 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Riyadh 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Al Riyadh attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.39 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights