Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Riyadh to EGO Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 April 2025 at 16:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 1D 7L at EGO Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at EGO Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Riyadh have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al Riyadh 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Al Riyadh 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al Riyadh 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Riyadh 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.828 / defence 1.100 | Al Riyadh attack 0.868 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.335. Data: 61 Al-Ettifaq games / 61 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al Riyadh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Apr 2025, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.29 / Al Riyadh 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.828 / def 1.100 | Al Riyadh attack 0.868 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Riyadh xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 16:40 on Thursday 17 April 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.83) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.67
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.56
1.27
Al Riyadh xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.27 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 19D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 1.13 PPG from 61 outings (17W 18D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.39 PPG, Al Riyadh on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al Riyadh 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 63% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 63% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 63% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Riyadh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Riyadh 1-0 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Riyadh 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Al Riyadh attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.39 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.