🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Riyadh to EGO Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 April 2025 at 16:40 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 1D 7L at EGO Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at EGO Stadium this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Riyadh have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al Riyadh 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Al Riyadh 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al Riyadh 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Riyadh 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.828 / defence 1.100 | Al Riyadh attack 0.868 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.335. Data: 61 Al-Ettifaq games / 61 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al Riyadh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights