🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights