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Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq and Al Najma finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 2.59 xG and Al Najma 1.05 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Al Najma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Al Najma attack 0.69 / defence 1.51, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 70% | Draw 17% | Al Najma 13%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 60%, Al Najma 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Najma's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights