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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Fateh 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fateh 4-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 0.94 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Al-Fateh attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Fateh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights