Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 36%, yet in-form Al Diriyah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Diriyah welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Diriyah — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Diriyah's home record over their last 7 home games: 1W 3D 3L (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al Diriyah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Diriyah, 0 for Al-Fateh and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2026, ended Al Diriyah 2–1 Al-Fateh — a Al Diriyah win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Diriyah trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Fateh trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Diriyah 33% versus Al-Fateh 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Fateh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 1.03 xG and Al-Fateh 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.601 / defence 0.914 | Al-Fateh attack 0.853 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.477. Al Diriyah's attack rating of 0.601 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Al Diriyah's last 12 games and Al-Fateh's last 46.
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 30% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 3.35 | Draw 2.91 | Al-Fateh 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Diriyah (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Diriyah's last 7 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Diriyah 43% (last 7 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 30% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al Diriyah 1.03 / Al-Fateh 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.601 / def 0.914 | Al-Fateh attack 0.853 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Fateh xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 18 March 2027 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 30% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Diriyah's attack at 0.60x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Diriyah's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Diriyah's last 12 games and Al-Fateh's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
30%
3.35
34%
2.91
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
2.19
1.15
Al-Fateh xG
3.35
30%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 1.15 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Al Diriyah have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Al-Fateh's form line: 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Al Diriyah are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Diriyah have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 6 home games (1W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Diriyah are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 0.83 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Diriyah (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Diriyah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Diriyah have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Diriyah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Diriyah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Diriyah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al Diriyah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to September 2026. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al Diriyah
0
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Al Diriyah have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Diriyah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Diriyah 50%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Al Diriyah and 50% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al Diriyah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Diriyah have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Diriyah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Diriyah's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Al Diriyah's recent matches and 83% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.