Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Ahli Jeddah over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Sep 2026, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.37 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.593 / defence 0.774 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.662 / defence 0.571. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.478. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack rating of 1.593 — their 1.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.571, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output down. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.662, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.774), which is pulling Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 45 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 46.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.88 | Draw 3.82 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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