Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.70 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.661 / defence 0.709 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.384 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.661 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 41 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.70 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.661 / def 0.709 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.384 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 March 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 43% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.66) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.38x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.32
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.01
1.31
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
5%
20.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.31 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 29W 6D 6L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form line: 28W 9D 4L from 41 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.27 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.27 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.70 PPG from 20 outings (17W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.27 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 15W 2D 3L from 20 away games — 2.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.41 scored and 1.02 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking output running into Al-Ahli Jeddah's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 66%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 29W 6D 6L in their last 41 games (2.27 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 9D 4L in their last 41 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.70 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.