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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.45 / defence 0.76 against Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%, Al-Hazm 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights