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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.78 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.55 / defence 0.69 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights