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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ural edge out Akhmat 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ural beat Akhmat 2-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.80 xG and Akhmat 0.88 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Akhmat attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ural 57% | Draw 27% | Akhmat 16%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 50%, Akhmat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ural's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ural 1.03 PPG, Akhmat 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights