🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Ural at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ural host Akhmat at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ural — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ural haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Akhmat's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Ural have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ural register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Akhmat have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Ural's 0 victories.

The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Akhmat winning.

It is worth noting that Akhmat have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Ural in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Akhmat in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 50% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 50% | Akhmat 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.80 xG and Akhmat 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 1.009 / defence 1.010 | Akhmat attack 0.796 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.097. Data: 30 Ural games / 60 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ural 57% | Draw 27% | Akhmat 16%. Fair-value odds: Ural 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Akhmat 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ural (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Akhmat lead the H2H ledger, but Ural carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Ural are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ural 70% | Akhmat 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights