🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Lokomotiv 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Lokomotiv 2-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.02 xG and Lokomotiv 1.39 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Lokomotiv attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 52% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 26%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 58%, Lokomotiv 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.83 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights