Spartak Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spartak Moscow face Lokomotiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Spartak Moscow welcome Lokomotiv to Lukoil Arena in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Spartak Moscow's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lokomotiv — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lokomotiv have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Spartak Moscow) versus 1.80 (Lokomotiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Spartak Moscow's games and 80% of Lokomotiv's (from Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and Lokomotiv's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Lokomotiv 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Spartak Moscow 2–4 Lokomotiv — a Lokomotiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lokomotiv in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 44% versus Lokomotiv 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 58% | Lokomotiv 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 2.02 xG and Lokomotiv 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.121 / defence 1.126 | Lokomotiv attack 1.166 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.059. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 52 games and Lokomotiv's last 52.
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 52% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 26%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.92 | Draw 4.65 | Lokomotiv 3.80. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and Lokomotiv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 60% (last 10 home games) | Lokomotiv 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 52% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Spartak Moscow 2.02 / Lokomotiv 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.121 / def 1.126 | Lokomotiv attack 1.166 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lokomotiv xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv FAQs
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Spartak Moscow 2 - 1 Lokomotiv.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 52% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Lokomotiv's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Lokomotiv's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spartak Moscow's last 52 games and Lokomotiv's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.65
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.41
1.39
Lokomotiv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
3%
28.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.39 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 52 games, going 28W 11D 13L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Lokomotiv sit at 1.87 PPG from 52 outings (27W 16D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.83 PPG, Lokomotiv on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 17W 5D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lokomotiv have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 26 away games (11W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.90 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv in 67%.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
Spartak Moscow (Home) vs Lokomotiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv Form FAQs
What form are Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 28W 11D 13L in their last 52 games (1.83 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 27W 16D 9L in their last 52 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Lokomotiv away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.15 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Lokomotiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lokomotiv in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2026, when Spartak Moscow won Lokomotiv 0-4 Spartak Moscow.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Lokomotiv specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
3
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Spartak Moscow have won 6, Lokomotiv have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Lokomotiv 0-4 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 42%, Lokomotiv 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Spartak Moscow) and 50% (Lokomotiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Spartak Moscow's games and 69% of Lokomotiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 50% of Lokomotiv's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 73% of Lokomotiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Lokomotiv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Lokomotiv 2-1 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.02 xG and Lokomotiv 1.39 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Lokomotiv attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 52% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 26%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 58%, Lokomotiv 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.83 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.