Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nizhny Novgorod face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov meet at Sovcombank Arena in Premier League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Nizhny Novgorod's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Krylia Sovetov's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 0.80 for Krylia Sovetov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov edge it 4 wins to 3, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Jul 2025, ended Nizhny Novgorod 0–2 Krylia Sovetov — a Krylia Sovetov win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 44% versus Krylia Sovetov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 54% | Krylia Sovetov 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.75 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.850 / defence 1.037 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.770 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.029. Krylia Sovetov's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nizhny Novgorod's projected output up. Krylia Sovetov's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 50 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 50.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 59% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 17%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 1.68 | Draw 4.29 | Krylia Sovetov 5.77. The model has a clear lean to Nizhny Novgorod (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nizhny Novgorod 40% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Sovcombank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 59% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.75 / Krylia Sovetov 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.850 / def 1.037 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.770 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Krylia Sovetov xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Sovcombank Arena.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Nizhny Novgorod 3 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Sovcombank Arena.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 59% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nizhny Novgorod's attack rating (0.85) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.77x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 50 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.29
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.57
0.82
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
33.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.82 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 8D 29L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (13W 12D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.02 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nizhny Novgorod's home form reads 7W 6D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.16 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 13W 8D 29L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 12D 25L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.12 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won Nizhny Novgorod 5-2 Krylia Sovetov on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nizhny Novgorod
2
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 50%, Krylia Sovetov 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 50% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 38% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 58% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 83% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nizhny Novgorod run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat Krylia Sovetov 3-0 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.75 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.82 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 59% | Draw 23% | Krylia Sovetov 17%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.