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Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 55%, CSKA Moscow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights