Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours CSKA Moscow — this Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sovcombank Arena plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 14:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nizhny Novgorod at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, CSKA Moscow have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 0.90 for CSKA Moscow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have the stronger record — 7 wins to Nizhny Novgorod's 1, with 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Nizhny Novgorod 0–2 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.
The H2H data backs the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 7 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 45% versus CSKA Moscow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 55% | CSKA Moscow 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nizhny Novgorod surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while CSKA Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.902 / defence 1.000 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.873 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.063. Data: built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 58 games and CSKA Moscow's last 58.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 2.72 | Draw 3.19 | CSKA Moscow 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nizhny Novgorod 40% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Sovcombank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 14:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 / CSKA Moscow 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.902 / def 1.000 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.873 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.93
CSKA Moscow xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 14:15 UK time on Monday 11 May 2026 at Sovcombank Arena.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Sovcombank Arena.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 37% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.90x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.87x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 58 games and CSKA Moscow's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.19
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
1.95
0.93
CSKA Moscow xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.93 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 14W 10D 34L from 58 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 14L across 58 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 8W 7D 13L from their last 28 home games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 13W 8D 7L across their last 28 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.48 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
Nizhny Novgorod (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 14W 10D 34L in their last 58 games (0.90 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 30W 14D 14L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.11 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
CSKA Moscow have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won Nizhny Novgorod 2-6 CSKA Moscow on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
8
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 50%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 43% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 32%; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 36% of games; CSKA Moscow in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 43% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 71% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 55%, CSKA Moscow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.