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Stalemate at Nizhny Novgorod's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nizhny Novgorod and Baltika finished level at 0-0 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 xG and Baltika 1.47 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Baltika landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Baltika attack 1.10 / defence 0.69, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Draw 30% | Baltika 49%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 58%, Baltika 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baltika's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights