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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Baltika at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Baltika encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Nizhny Novgorod welcome Baltika to Sovcombank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 12:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sovcombank Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at Sovcombank Arena than their overall form suggests.

Baltika — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Baltika's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baltika — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nizhny Novgorod, 1 for Baltika and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Baltika winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.

Baltika in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nizhny Novgorod 33% | Baltika 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 58% | Baltika 25%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 xG and Baltika 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.931 / defence 1.121 | Baltika attack 1.101 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.192. Baltika's defence strength of 0.686 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Nizhny Novgorod games / 12 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 21% | Draw 30% | Baltika 49%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Baltika 2.04. Baltika hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | Baltika 29% BTTS from recent games.

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