FC Krasnodar 2-2 Baltika – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Krasnodar face Baltika.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Baltika travel to Ozon Arena to take on FC Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Krasnodar stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Krasnodar 2.10 PPG, Baltika 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Krasnodar, 0 for Baltika and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended FC Krasnodar 1–1 Baltika — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Krasnodar trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Baltika trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus Baltika 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Krasnodar 50% | Baltika 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 2.10 xG and Baltika 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.465 / defence 0.869 | Baltika attack 0.945 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.083. FC Krasnodar carry an above-average attack rating of 1.465 — their 2.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 54 games and Baltika's last 24.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 65% | Draw 20% | Baltika 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.53 | Draw 5.05 | Baltika 6.73. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (65%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 50% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Ozon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 65% | Draw 20% | Baltika 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FC Krasnodar 2.10 / Baltika 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.465 / def 0.869 | Baltika attack 0.945 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Baltika xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Baltika FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Baltika kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Baltika kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Ozon Arena.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
FC Krasnodar 2 - 2 Baltika.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Ozon Arena.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Baltika part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 65% chance of winning, Baltika a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Krasnodar vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 1.47x the league average against Baltika's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 54 games and Baltika's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.05
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.99
0.89
Baltika xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
55.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.89 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Baltika?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 16W 5D 3L from 24 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 2L across 24 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 2.21 PPG, Baltika on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Krasnodar have managed 10W 0D 2L from their last 12 home games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baltika's away record stands at 4W 6D 2L across their last 12 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.42 scored and 0.54 conceded. FC Krasnodar's scoring rate against Baltika's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Baltika in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Baltika
Blended
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Baltika in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 16W 5D 3L in their last 24 games (2.21 PPG), while Baltika have gone 11W 11D 2L in their last 24 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Baltika away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.50 PPG; Baltika away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Baltika in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC Krasnodar
4
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Baltika?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 1, Baltika have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: FC Krasnodar 1-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Baltika?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 50%, Baltika 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Krasnodar) and 25% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Baltika in 50%; Baltika in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 33% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Krasnodar and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 25% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 58% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar and Baltika share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 25, as FC Krasnodar and Baltika drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 2.10 xG and Baltika 0.89 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Baltika outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.47 / defence 0.87 against Baltika attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 65% | Draw 20% | Baltika 15%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 50%, Baltika 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Baltika's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.21 PPG, Baltika 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.