FC UFA 1-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees FC Krasnodar travel to BetBoom Аrena to take on FC UFA. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC UFA stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC UFA's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at BetBoom Аrena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Krasnodar have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Krasnodar are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC UFA, 0 for FC Krasnodar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC UFA trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Krasnodar trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC UFA 60% versus FC Krasnodar 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC UFA 35% | FC Krasnodar 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC UFA 0.94 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC UFA attack 0.789 / defence 1.037 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.074 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.215. FC UFA's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 FC UFA games / 20 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC UFA 24% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 45%. Fair-value odds: FC UFA 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | FC Krasnodar 2.22. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC UFA 70% | FC Krasnodar 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: BetBoom Аrena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC UFA 24% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG FC UFA 0.94 / FC Krasnodar 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC UFA attack 0.789 / def 1.037 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.074 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC UFA xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Krasnodar xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at BetBoom Аrena.
What was the final score in FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar?
FC UFA 1 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at BetBoom Аrena.
What competition is FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar part of?
FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives FC UFA a 24% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC UFA and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and FC Krasnodar?
Record (1 meetings): FC UFA 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 0W.
What form are FC UFA and FC Krasnodar in?
FC UFA (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC UFA's attack at 0.79x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus FC UFA's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
24%
4.11
31%
3.24
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC UFA xG
Total xG
2.29
1.35
FC Krasnodar xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC UFA and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC UFA and 1.35 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC UFA come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 8D 9L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of FC UFA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC UFA's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC UFA are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.65 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC UFA
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC UFA and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
FC UFA have gone 3W 8D 9L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC UFA at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC UFA at home: 1.10 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC UFA or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC UFA have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC UFA
2
Draws
0
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC UFA and FC Krasnodar?
From 2 meetings on record, FC UFA have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC UFA and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when FC UFA 1-1 FC Krasnodar.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC UFA at 70%, FC Krasnodar at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (FC UFA) and 60% (FC Krasnodar).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC UFA home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC UFA play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC UFA's games and 70% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC UFA vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of FC UFA's recent games and 60% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC UFA and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
FC UFA have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC UFA and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC UFA and FC Krasnodar finished level at 1-1 at BetBoom Аrena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC UFA 0.94 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.35 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC UFA attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC UFA 24% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 45%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC UFA 35%, FC Krasnodar 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC UFA's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.