Ural 0-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ekaterinburg Arena plays host to Ural versus Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 09:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ural have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Ekaterinburg Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Khimki's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ural. A 0.70 PPG lead over Khimki (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ural lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Khimki half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 29% versus Khimki 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ural 19% | Khimki 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.14 xG and Khimki 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.677 / defence 0.924 | Khimki attack 0.807 / defence 1.622. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.199. Ural's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.622 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Ural games / 21 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 39% | Draw 34% | Khimki 27%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Khimki 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ural as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ural if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Ural 30% | Khimki 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 39% | Draw 34% | Khimki 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ural 1.14 / Khimki 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.677 / def 0.924 | Khimki attack 0.807 / def 1.622 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Ural (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Khimki xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Khimki kick off?
Ural vs Khimki kicked off at 09:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Khimki?
Ural 0 - 1 Khimki.
Where is Ural vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Khimki part of?
Ural vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 39% chance of winning, Khimki a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ural and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Khimki?
Record (1 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Khimki 0W.
What form are Ural and Khimki in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Khimki (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ural's attack rating (0.68) and Khimki's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khimki's attack (0.81x) against Ural's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
39%
2.54
34%
2.96
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ural xG
Total xG
2.03
0.90
Khimki xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ural and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ural and 0.90 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ural come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 8D 9L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.71 PPG from 21 outings (2W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Ural against 0.71 for Khimki. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ural's home form reads 1W 6D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ural are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 0.86 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Khimki in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 9D 10L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Khimki away?
Ural's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.90 PPG; Khimki away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Ural or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Khimki in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ural go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ural won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ural have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Khimki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ural
1
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Khimki?
From 4 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, Khimki have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Khimki 0-3 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Khimki?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ural see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 30%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 10% (Ural) and 70% (Khimki).
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 60% of games; Khimki in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ural's recent matches and 50% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Ural's recent games and 70% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Khimki tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Khimki in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khimki defy the odds to beat Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.14 xG and Khimki 0.90 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.68 / defence 0.92 against Khimki attack 0.81 / defence 1.62, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 39% | Draw 34% | Khimki 27%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Khimki win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 19%, Khimki 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khimki's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 0.95 PPG, Khimki 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khimki win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.