Krylia Sovetov 1-2 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees FC UFA travel to Solidarnost Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC UFA — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC UFA's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Krylia Sovetov are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, FC UFA 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
FC UFA trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus FC UFA 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Krylia Sovetov 43% | FC UFA 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.40 xG and FC UFA 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.014 / defence 1.091 | FC UFA attack 0.606 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.274. FC UFA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Krylia Sovetov games / 22 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 33% | FC UFA 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | FC UFA 5.00. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 40% | FC UFA 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 33% | FC UFA 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.40 / FC UFA 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.014 / def 1.091 | FC UFA attack 0.606 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC UFA xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 2 FC UFA.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 47% chance of winning, FC UFA a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | FC UFA 0W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. FC UFA (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FC UFA's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
47%
2.11
33%
3.08
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.24
0.84
FC UFA xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.84 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 9W 5D 7L from 21 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC UFA, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 9L across 21 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Krylia Sovetov by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC UFA heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC UFA's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 0.90 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC UFA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 3W 9D 9L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC UFA away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.80 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or FC UFA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC UFA in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
1
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, FC UFA have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Krylia Sovetov 1-2 FC UFA.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC UFA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 40%, FC UFA 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Krylia Sovetov and 40% for FC UFA.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC UFA in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC UFA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of FC UFA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 40% of FC UFA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC UFA tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC UFA in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC UFA defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC UFA beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.40 xG and FC UFA 0.84 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC UFA outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against FC UFA attack 0.61 / defence 1.28, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 33% | FC UFA 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a FC UFA win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 43%, FC UFA 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC UFA's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with FC UFA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC UFA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.