FC Rostov 0-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow meet at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
FC Rostov (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Rostov Arena, FC Rostov have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, CSKA Moscow in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Rostov 0W, CSKA Moscow 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–4 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 78% versus CSKA Moscow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 67% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.57 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.982 / defence 0.954 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.006 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.365. Data: 36 FC Rostov games / 36 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 42% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | CSKA Moscow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 70% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 42% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Rostov 1.57 / CSKA Moscow 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.982 / def 0.954 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.006 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.31
CSKA Moscow xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Rostov 0 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 42% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (2 meetings): FC Rostov 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 0.98x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.01x) against FC Rostov's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.55
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.88
1.31
CSKA Moscow xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.31 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 13W 11D 12L from 36 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 11L across 36 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.75 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Rostov are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 19W 6D 11L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.59 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.24 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
4
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 2, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 76%, CSKA Moscow 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for FC Rostov and 47% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of FC Rostov's games and 53% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Rostov's matches and 47% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Rostov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow finished level at 0-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.57 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Rostov fell 1.6 short of their projected output. CSKA Moscow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 42% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 30%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 67%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.39 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.