Torpedo Moskva 1-4 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Khimki plays host to Torpedo Moskva versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 28 August 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Torpedo Moskva (all games): 0W 1D 5L across 6 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Torpedo Moskva have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FC Krasnodar are the stronger side — 1.73 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.17). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Torpedo Moskva goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torpedo Moskva 50% versus FC Krasnodar 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 50% | FC Krasnodar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 0.97 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.765 / defence 1.457 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.995 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.328. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Torpedo Moskva games / 36 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 17% | Draw 25% | FC Krasnodar 58%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | FC Krasnodar 1.72. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Torpedo Moskva 50% | FC Krasnodar 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 17% | Draw 25% | FC Krasnodar 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Torpedo Moskva 0.97 / FC Krasnodar 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.765 / def 1.457 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.995 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.92
FC Krasnodar xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar?
Torpedo Moskva 1 - 4 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 17% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Torpedo Moskva's attack at 0.77x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (0.99x) against Torpedo Moskva's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
17%
5.88
25%
4.00
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.90
1.92
FC Krasnodar xG
5.88
17%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
2%
40.26
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.92 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Torpedo Moskva's recent record stands at 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, a 0.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Krasnodar, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Krasnodar by 1.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torpedo Moskva heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have Torpedo Moskva or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torpedo Moskva have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
1
Draws
1
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when FC Krasnodar 2-2 Torpedo Moskva.
Who has won more matches between Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torpedo Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 50%, FC Krasnodar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Torpedo Moskva) and 67% (FC Krasnodar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 50%; Torpedo Moskva have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Torpedo Moskva's recent matches and 50% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Torpedo Moskva's matches and 67% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Torpedo Moskva and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Torpedo Moskva.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Torpedo Moskva 1-4 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 0.97 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.92 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.77 / defence 1.46 against FC Krasnodar attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 17% | Draw 25% | FC Krasnodar 58%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 50%, FC Krasnodar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Torpedo Moskva shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.