CSKA Moscow 4-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.80 for Akhmat. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: CSKA Moscow 1W, Akhmat 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Akhmat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 40% versus Akhmat 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 43% | Akhmat 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.92 xG and Akhmat 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.341 / defence 0.708 | Akhmat attack 1.067 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.253. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. CSKA Moscow's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 CSKA Moscow games / 35 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 59% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 16%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Akhmat 6.25. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: CSKA Moscow 30% | Akhmat 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 59% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.92 / Akhmat 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.341 / def 0.708 | Akhmat attack 1.067 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Akhmat xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow 4 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 59% chance of winning, Akhmat a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (2 meetings): CSKA Moscow 1W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (1.07x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
59%
1.71
25%
4.00
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.87
0.95
Akhmat xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
41.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.95 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 18W 6D 11L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 15L across 35 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.43 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 11W 3D 3L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
Akhmat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 15W 5D 15L in their last 35 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.12 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.06 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Akhmat in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Akhmat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 29%, Akhmat 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (CSKA Moscow) and 53% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Akhmat in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 59% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 53% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Akhmat 4-2 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.92 xG and Akhmat 0.95 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akhmat outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 / defence 0.71 against Akhmat attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 59% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 16%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 43%, Akhmat 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.71 PPG, Akhmat 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.