FC Krasnodar 0-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Krasnodar face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Stadion FK Krasnodar to face FC Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Krasnodar have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Akhmat edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended FC Krasnodar 1–1 Akhmat — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 62% and Akhmat 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 57% | Akhmat 61%). Note also that Akhmat surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while FC Krasnodar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.73 xG and Akhmat 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.190 / defence 0.944 | Akhmat attack 0.924 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.241. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 56 games and Akhmat's last 56.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.93 | Draw 4.01 | Akhmat 4.31. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 60% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG FC Krasnodar 1.73 / Akhmat 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.190 / def 0.944 | Akhmat attack 0.924 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Akhmat xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 52% chance of winning, Akhmat a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (1.19) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.92x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 56 games and Akhmat's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.01
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.81
1.08
Akhmat xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
24.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.08 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 27W 17D 12L from 56 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 23L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.41 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Krasnodar have managed 18W 5D 4L from their last 27 home games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 11W 4D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Akhmat in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 23W 10D 23L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Akhmat away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.19 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.37 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Akhmat in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
4
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 4, Akhmat have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: FC Krasnodar 1-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 59%, Akhmat 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Krasnodar and 67% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Akhmat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Krasnodar's games and 67% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 67% of Akhmat's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 78% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat FC Krasnodar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat FC Krasnodar 0-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.73 xG and Akhmat 1.08 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Krasnodar fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.19 / defence 0.94 against Akhmat attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 23%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Akhmat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 57%, Akhmat 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.75 PPG, Akhmat 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.