Fakel 1-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fakel face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Fakel welcome Zenit to Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Fakel's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fakel, 2 for Zenit and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Zenit winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fakel trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Zenit trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 45% versus Zenit 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 32% | Zenit 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.73 xG and Zenit 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.629 / defence 0.803 | Zenit attack 1.145 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.224. Fakel's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Fakel games / 56 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 23% | Draw 32% | Zenit 44%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Zenit 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 20% | Zenit 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 23% | Draw 32% | Zenit 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Fakel 0.73 / Zenit 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.629 / def 0.803 | Zenit attack 1.145 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Zenit (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Zenit xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Zenit kick off?
Fakel vs Zenit kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Zenit?
Fakel 1 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Fakel vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Zenit part of?
Fakel vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 23% chance of winning, Zenit a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Fakel and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Zenit?
Record (3 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 1 | Zenit 2W.
What form are Fakel and Zenit in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.63) and Zenit's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
23%
4.28
32%
3.09
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.86
1.12
Zenit xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 17.5 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Fakel and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Fakel and 1.12 for Zenit, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 20D 22L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.14 PPG from 56 outings (36W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 8W 13D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.93 points per game from 28 outings (15W 9D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.11 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Zenit in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 14W 20D 22L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Zenit have gone 36W 12D 8L in their last 56 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.32 PPG; Zenit away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Fakel or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zenit in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Zenit have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Fakel's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
4
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Zenit?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Zenit have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Fakel 0-2 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 46%, Zenit 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Fakel) and 43% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Zenit in 39%; Fakel have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fakel's recent matches and 54% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fakel's recent games and 43% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Zenit tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Zenit in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 27, as Fakel and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.73 xG and Zenit 1.12 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.63 / defence 0.80 against Zenit attack 1.15 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 23% | Draw 32% | Zenit 44%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 32%, Zenit 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Zenit's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.