Krylia Sovetov 0-0 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 29 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 6W 3D 1L at Solidarnost Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.70 for FC Krasnodar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Krasnodar in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, FC Krasnodar 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 60% and FC Krasnodar 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 56% | FC Krasnodar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.101 / defence 0.910 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.115 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.275. Data: 55 Krylia Sovetov games / 55 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 29%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | FC Krasnodar 3.45. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 60% | FC Krasnodar 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.69 / FC Krasnodar 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.101 / def 0.910 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.115 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Krasnodar xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 0 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 47% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
Record (5 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.11x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.19
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
FC Krasnodar xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.29 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 14D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.76 PPG from 55 outings (27W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 11W 10D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (9W 10D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.87 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Krasnodar in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 14D 22L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 16D 12L in their last 55 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.59 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 0-6 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
5
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, FC Krasnodar 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Krylia Sovetov) and 59% (FC Krasnodar).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 67% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 59% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Krylia Sovetov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 29%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 56%, FC Krasnodar 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.