Dinamo Makhachkala 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Spartak Moscow travel to Anzhi Arena to take on Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dinamo Makhachkala stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Spartak Moscow — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Spartak Moscow away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spartak Moscow — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dinamo Makhachkala, 1 for Spartak Moscow and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Jul 2025, ended Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Spartak Moscow — a Spartak Moscow win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dinamo Makhachkala in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 44% versus Spartak Moscow 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dinamo Makhachkala 27% | Spartak Moscow 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.891 / defence 1.046 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.179 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.070. Data: built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 59 games and Spartak Moscow's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 35% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 38%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.82 | Draw 3.78 | Spartak Moscow 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dinamo Makhachkala 30% (last 10 home games) | Spartak Moscow 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 35% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 / Spartak Moscow 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.891 / def 1.046 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.179 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Spartak Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow FAQs
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 35% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.89x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Dinamo Makhachkala's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 59 games and Spartak Moscow's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.78
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.58
1.32
Spartak Moscow xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.32 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dinamo Makhachkala's recent record stands at 11W 21D 27L from 59 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 15L across 59 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dinamo Makhachkala heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dinamo Makhachkala have managed 9W 9D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 12W 7D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.75 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Current Season
Spartak Moscow
Current Season
Dinamo Makhachkala (Home) vs Spartak Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dinamo Makhachkala
Current Season
Spartak Moscow
Current Season
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 21D 27L in their last 59 games (0.92 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 32W 12D 15L in their last 59 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.24 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dinamo Makhachkala's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
Draws
1
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Dinamo Makhachkala 0-0 Spartak Moscow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 45%, Spartak Moscow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 48% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow in 34%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 52% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 48% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 66% of Spartak Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dinamo Makhachkala's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.32 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 35% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 38%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 27%, Spartak Moscow 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.