Akhmat 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala meet at Akhmat-Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Akhmat (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Akhmat at Akhmat-Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Akhmat-Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Akhmat 0W, Dinamo Makhachkala 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Dinamo Makhachkala winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Akhmat — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 55% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 45% | Dinamo Makhachkala 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.37 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.926 / defence 0.801 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.808 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.053. Data: 58 Akhmat games / 58 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Dinamo Makhachkala 5.26. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 40% | Dinamo Makhachkala 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Akhmat 1.37 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.926 / def 0.801 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.808 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Akhmat 1 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 53% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Record (3 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 1 | Dinamo Makhachkala 2W.
What form are Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Akhmat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Akhmat's attack rating (0.93) and Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.81x) against Akhmat's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.57
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.05
0.68
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.68 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Akhmat come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 19D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 0.91 PPG from 58 outings (11W 20D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Akhmat against 0.91 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Akhmat's home form reads 12W 9D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (2W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Akhmat are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Current Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 14W 19D 25L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 20D 27L in their last 58 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Akhmat's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.55 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Akhmat
2
Draws
2
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 4 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 0, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Akhmat 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 52%, Dinamo Makhachkala 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Akhmat and 28% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Akhmat's recent matches and 41% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Akhmat's recent games and 28% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 1-1 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.37 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 45%, Dinamo Makhachkala 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.05 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.