Baltika 1-2 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baltika face Dynamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baltika and Dynamo meet at Rostec Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baltika have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Rostec Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rostec Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dynamo's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Dynamo are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Baltika 0W, Dynamo 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baltika goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dynamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 34% versus Dynamo 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 24% | Dynamo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.08 xG and Dynamo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.854 / defence 0.960 | Dynamo attack 1.249 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.070. Dynamo have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Baltika games / 59 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baltika 20% | Dynamo 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Baltika 1.08 / Dynamo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.854 / def 0.960 | Dynamo attack 1.249 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Dynamo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Dynamo kick off?
Baltika vs Dynamo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Dynamo?
Baltika 1 - 2 Dynamo.
Where is Baltika vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Dynamo part of?
Baltika vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 31% chance of winning, Dynamo a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Baltika and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Dynamo?
Record (3 meetings): Baltika 0W | Draws 1 | Dynamo 2W.
What form are Baltika and Dynamo in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Dynamo's attack (1.25x) against Baltika's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.60
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.36
1.28
Dynamo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Baltika and 1.28 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Baltika have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 11W 13D 5L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Dynamo's form line: 11W 9D 9L from 29 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Baltika against 1.45 for Dynamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 5W 5D 4L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.69 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 66%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Current Season
Dynamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 13D 5L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Dynamo away?
Baltika's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.86 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Baltika or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Dynamo in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Dynamo?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Dynamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baltika 2-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 29%, Dynamo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Baltika and 43% for Dynamo.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Baltika's recent matches and 71% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Baltika's recent games and 43% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Dynamo tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Baltika 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Baltika 1-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.08 xG and Dynamo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Dynamo attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 24%, Dynamo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.59 PPG, Dynamo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.