Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dinamo Makhachkala face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Dinamo Makhachkala's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Rostov have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Rostov's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Dinamo Makhachkala, 0 for FC Rostov and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 FC Rostov — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 42% versus FC Rostov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | FC Rostov 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dinamo Makhachkala surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while FC Rostov have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.893 / defence 0.975 | FC Rostov attack 0.871 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.044. Data: built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 57 games and FC Rostov's last 57.
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 37% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 31%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.68 | Draw 3.11 | FC Rostov 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dinamo Makhachkala are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dinamo Makhachkala if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dinamo Makhachkala's last 10 home games and FC Rostov's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dinamo Makhachkala 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 37% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.01 / FC Rostov 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.893 / def 0.975 | FC Rostov attack 0.871 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Dinamo Makhachkala (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Rostov xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov?
Dinamo Makhachkala 1 - 2 FC Rostov.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 37% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dinamo Makhachkala the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.89x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.87x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 57 games and FC Rostov's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dinamo Makhachkala Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.11
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.90
0.89
FC Rostov xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 0.89 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 11W 20D 26L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Rostov's form line: 16W 18D 23L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.16 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 9D 10L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 20D 26L in their last 57 games (0.93 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 16W 18D 23L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or FC Rostov away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Rostov have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won Dinamo Makhachkala 0-3 FC Rostov on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
3
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, FC Rostov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Dinamo Makhachkala 0-3 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 43%, FC Rostov 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 39% for FC Rostov.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Rostov in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 54% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 39% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 71% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 0.89 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against FC Rostov attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 37% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 31%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Rostov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 26%, FC Rostov 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.93 PPG, FC Rostov 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.