Baltika 0-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baltika vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Rubin travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baltika stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rostec Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rubin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Baltika) versus 1.60 (Rubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Baltika's 20% and Rubin's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Baltika, 2 for Rubin and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Baltika winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baltika trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Rubin trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Baltika 37% | Rubin 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 26% | Rubin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.94 xG and Rubin 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.929 / defence 0.933 | Rubin attack 0.797 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.057. Rubin's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Baltika games / 57 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 37% | Draw 34% | Rubin 29%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Rubin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Rubin's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 20% | Rubin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 37% | Draw 34% | Rubin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Baltika 0.94 / Rubin 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.929 / def 0.933 | Rubin attack 0.797 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Baltika (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Rubin xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Rubin kick off?
Baltika vs Rubin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Baltika 0 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Baltika vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Rubin part of?
Baltika vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 37% chance of winning, Rubin a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Baltika and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
Record (3 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 0 | Rubin 2W.
What form are Baltika and Rubin in?
Baltika (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Rubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.93x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.95
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Baltika xG
Total xG
1.73
0.79
Rubin xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Baltika and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Baltika and 0.79 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 11W 13D 3L from 27 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 8L across 27 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.70 PPG, Rubin on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 7W 5D 1L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rubin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.93 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin in 30%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Rubin in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Rubin in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 13D 3L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Rubin have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Rubin away?
Baltika's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Baltika or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Rubin in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and Rubin runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Baltika won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baltika's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Rubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Baltika 1-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 31% BTTS, Rubin 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Baltika and 31% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Rubin in 38%; Rubin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Baltika's recent matches and 31% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Baltika's recent games and 31% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Rubin tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rubin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.94 xG and Rubin 0.79 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Rubin attack 0.80 / defence 0.74, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 37% | Draw 34% | Rubin 29%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 26%, Rubin 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.70 PPG, Rubin 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.