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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 1-4 hammering of CSKA Moscow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat CSKA Moscow 1-4 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.58 xG and Dynamo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo outscored their 0.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Dynamo attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 21%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 43%, Dynamo 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Dynamo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.94 PPG, Dynamo 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights