Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 19 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fakel have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Krylia Sovetov, 0.60 for Fakel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 60% and Fakel 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 40% | Fakel 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.74 xG and Fakel 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.802 / defence 1.057 | Fakel attack 0.972 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.238. Fakel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Krylia Sovetov games / 5 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Fakel 26%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Fakel 3.85. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Fakel 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Fakel 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.74 / Fakel 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.802 / def 1.057 | Fakel attack 0.972 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fakel xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Fakel.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 46% chance of winning, Fakel a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Fakel (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.80) and Fakel's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.97x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.53
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
3.01
1.27
Fakel xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
5%
22.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.27 for Fakel, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fakel's form line: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fakel in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Fakel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Fakel have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
1
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
From 6 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Fakel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Krylia Sovetov, 80% for Fakel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Krylia Sovetov and 80% for Fakel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Fakel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 80% of Fakel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 80% of Fakel's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Fakel tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fakel in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Fakel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Krylia Sovetov and Fakel drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.74 xG and Fakel 1.27 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Fakel attack 0.97 / defence 1.35, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Fakel 26%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 40%, Fakel 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fakel's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.