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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod finished level at 2-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.90 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.65 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 1.00 / defence 0.76 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 12%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 22%, Nizhny Novgorod 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights