Baltika 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baltika welcome Nizhny Novgorod to Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baltika have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nizhny Novgorod stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Baltika have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Baltika's 20% BTTS rate and Nizhny Novgorod's 30% (from Baltika's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Baltika, 0 for Nizhny Novgorod and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Baltika 0–0 Nizhny Novgorod — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Baltika in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 30% of Baltika's games and 30% of Nizhny Novgorod's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 22% | Nizhny Novgorod 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.90 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 1.001 / defence 0.763 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.805 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.053. Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baltika's projected output up. Baltika have a tight defence (rating 0.763), which is pulling Nizhny Novgorod's projected output down. Data: built from Baltika's last 23 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 53.
Result probabilities: Baltika 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 12%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 1.48 | Draw 4.81 | Nizhny Novgorod 8.45. The model has a clear lean to Baltika (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Baltika's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 20% (last 10 home games) | Nizhny Novgorod 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Baltika 1.90 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 1.001 / def 0.763 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.805 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Baltika (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Nizhny Novgorod xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Baltika 2 - 2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 67% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baltika's attack rating (1.00) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 23 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
67%
1.48
21%
4.81
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.55
0.65
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
2%
56.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Baltika and 0.65 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 11W 10D 2L from 23 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Nizhny Novgorod, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 15L across 23 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baltika by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 7W 4D 0L from their last 11 home games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record stands at 2W 0D 9L across their last 11 away games, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.48 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.78 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Nizhny Novgorod (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 10D 2L in their last 23 games (1.87 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 6W 2D 15L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Baltika's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.27 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Baltika or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Baltika's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Baltika
3
Draws
0
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Baltika 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 27% BTTS, Nizhny Novgorod 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Baltika) and 54% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Baltika's recent matches and 27% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Baltika's recent games and 54% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Baltika's recent matches and 73% of Nizhny Novgorod's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod finished level at 2-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.90 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.65 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 1.00 / defence 0.76 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 12%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 22%, Nizhny Novgorod 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.