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Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Baltika 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat Baltika 1-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.08 xG and Dynamo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Dynamo attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 24%, Dynamo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Dynamo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baltika 1.59 PPG, Dynamo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights