Baltika 1-2 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baltika and Dynamo meet at Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Baltika have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Baltika's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dynamo's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Dynamo are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Dynamo edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Jul 2025, ended Baltika 1–1 Dynamo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baltika goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dynamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 34% versus Dynamo 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 24% | Dynamo 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Baltika surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Dynamo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Dynamo surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Baltika recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.08 xG and Dynamo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.854 / defence 0.960 | Dynamo attack 1.249 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.070. Dynamo have an above-average attack rating of 1.249, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from Baltika's last 29 games and Dynamo's last 59.
Result probabilities: Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.21 | Draw 3.60 | Dynamo 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baltika 20% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Baltika 1.08 / Dynamo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.854 / def 0.960 | Dynamo attack 1.249 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Dynamo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Dynamo kick off?
Baltika vs Dynamo kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Dynamo?
Baltika 1 - 2 Dynamo.
Where is Baltika vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Dynamo part of?
Baltika vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 31% chance of winning, Dynamo a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Baltika and Dynamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Baltika vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dynamo's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Dynamo's attack (1.25x) against Baltika's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 29 games and Dynamo's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.60
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.36
1.28
Dynamo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Baltika and 1.28 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Baltika have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 11W 13D 5L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Dynamo's form line: 11W 9D 9L from 29 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Baltika against 1.45 for Dynamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 14 home games (7W 5D 2L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 5W 5D 4L from their last 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.69 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 66%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Current Season
Dynamo
Current Season
Baltika (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Current Season
Dynamo
Current Season
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 13D 5L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Dynamo away?
Baltika's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.86 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Baltika or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Dynamo in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dynamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Dynamo?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Dynamo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baltika and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Baltika 2-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 29%, Dynamo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Baltika and 43% for Dynamo.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Dynamo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Baltika's recent matches and 71% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Baltika's recent games and 43% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Baltika's recent matches and 71% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Baltika 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Baltika 1-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.08 xG and Dynamo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Dynamo attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 41%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 24%, Dynamo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.59 PPG, Dynamo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.