Baltika 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baltika face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baltika host CSKA Moscow at Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baltika have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Baltika at home: 5W 4D 0L from their last 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, CSKA Moscow stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
CSKA Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baltika at 1.90 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Baltika, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Baltika 0–1 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baltika in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 30% versus CSKA Moscow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 15% | CSKA Moscow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.18 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.849 / defence 0.894 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.050. Data: built from Baltika's last 20 games and CSKA Moscow's last 50.
Result probabilities: Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.30 | Draw 3.33 | CSKA Moscow 3.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baltika are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Baltika's last 9 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 33% (last 9 home games) | CSKA Moscow 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Baltika 1.18 / CSKA Moscow 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.849 / def 0.894 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Baltika (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.85
CSKA Moscow xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Baltika vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Baltika vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Baltika 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Baltika vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 44% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baltika and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Baltika vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baltika's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 20 games and CSKA Moscow's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
44%
2.30
30%
3.33
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.03
0.85
CSKA Moscow xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Baltika and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Baltika and 0.85 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 9W 9D 2L from 20 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 6L across 20 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.80 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 5W 4D 0L from their last 9 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across their last 9 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.45 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 9W 9D 2L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Baltika's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.11 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Baltika or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baltika's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 2, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 July 2026: CSKA Moscow 2-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, CSKA Moscow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Baltika and 44% for CSKA Moscow.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and CSKA Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Baltika's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baltika's recent matches and 89% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baltika edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.18 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.85 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 15%, CSKA Moscow 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.80 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baltika win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.