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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Baltika edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.18 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.85 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 15%, CSKA Moscow 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baltika 1.80 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baltika win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights